“Black Panther” Delivers Fifth-Biggest Debut Ever

Living up to they hype and then some, Black Panther beat all expectations and shattered several records on its path to the fifth-biggest opening of all time. The only four films ahead of it all cracked $200 million in their first three days: the last two Star Wars entries, as well as Jurassic World and The Avengers. That means that this deep into the MCU, only the enormous team-up movie did any better. Black Panther is also the biggest debut of all time for a black director, nearly doubling the $98.7 million The Fate of the Furious opened with last year. It also blows away the previous February record-holder: 2016's Deadpool, which also defied expectations with $132.4 million in three days. The film should pass $200 million on Monday's Presidents Day holiday, and should likely finish at or above $300 million by the end of next week. With no serious threats until March 9's A Wrinkle in Time, there's a good chance this ends up being the year's biggest movie. (Although my money is still on Avengers: Infinity War.)

With about $175 million less, Peter Rabbit held strong at No. 2. Like Black Panther, it's only competition in the coming weeks is A Wrinkle in Time, so it has time to finish between $65 and $75 million. Fifty Shades Freed fell to No. 3 and while it's by far the lowest-performing film of the franchise, it's still on its way to $100 million, making it one of the most successful franchises ever.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle still had an astonishingly small drop, slipping only 20 percent. At this rate, it still has an outside shot at $400 million and seems all but guaranteed to end its run as the fourth biggest movie of 2017, something absolutely no one could have predicted. The 15:17 to Paris plunged to fifth, and will likely end up right in the middle of the pack of Clint Eastwood's directorial efforts.

Outside the top 5:

• This Weekend's Indie Champ: The Party, the British comedy of manners. The black-and-white film averaged $12,111 on each of its three screens.
• Neither the stop-motion animated Early Man nor the biblical epic Samson managed to make much of an impact. The former made a microscopic $3.1 million while the latter did bad even by Christian movie standards, with only $1.9 million.
• It took a longer time to get there, but despite a small opening, mediocre reviews and only one Oscar nomination, The Greatest Showman is now the fourth-biggest musical ever. The P.T. Barnum biopic won't pass Chicago ($170 million), but it's truly an amazing feat.

Next week:

Black Panther isn't going anywhere. Though it will almost certainly drop between 45 and 50 percent, it's going to be No. 1 again with at least $80 million. Its competition is the dark sci-fi Annihilation, which I am sad to predict is going to flop, given that its premise is nearly impossible to explain in a trailer or 30-second ad. (It's a real shame given the talent involved and its stellar source material, so I hope I'm wrong.) Thus, I think that the R-rated comedy Game Night will be the No. 2 with around $20 million.